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The Following Is A Transcript Of Episode 34 Of The Retire Happy Podcast With Roger Gainer.
All episodes of the podcast can be found at Apple Podcasts, I Heart Radio, Spotify, and Google Podcasts.
Roger
There\’s more noise than there\’s ever been before. There\’s just more noise and more confusion, really, than I can ever remember. So being able to implement these five tips to shut out the noise is really going to help people more than almost any other time. These things work in any environment. But today, especially. You\’re listening to Retire Happy with Roger Gainer, president of Gainer Financial Insurance Services, Inc. Thanks for joining us. I\’m your host, Clark Buckner.
Clark
In the midst of the uncertainty caused by COVID- 19, it\’s easy to be overwhelmed by all the noise for hearing about the economy, vaccines and what to expect going forward. And the more stressed we become, the harder it is and make the right decisions. So in this episode, Roger and I share five tips to help shut out the noise and reduce stress around you and your finances. He also explains how working with an expert and using tools like the thought organizer can help you navigate these complicated circumstances.
Clark
For more content like this. Be sure to head on over to Gayner Financial dot com. Enjoy the show. Roger, it\’s great to have you back on him. Looking forward to today\’s conversation. Me too. I hope all our listeners are safe and wellness. You know, doing things to protect themselves and their families and try not to go too crazy with the stay at home and social distancing. Yeah.
Clark
It\’s challenging times and trying to process all of that and adapting and changing to what\’s happening around us. And, you know, we already knew from this podcast you\’ve shared so many examples how money can just keep us up at night. And the thought of trying to retire happy can keep us up at night. Then you add these multiple back to back layers that we\’re swimming through right now. That only adds to the stress. It adds to the feelings and emotions, which we also talked about on the show, how emotions can sometimes really be blinding and costabile to do things that they wish they didn\’t.
Clark
So today we\’re talking about tips to shut out the noise and find that focus and find that clear specifically five tips to shut out the noise.
Clark
So I\’m really excited to dig into this with you.
Roger
Wow. Thanks, Clark. I have really noticed in talking to a lot of people over the last three months or so, people stressed out.
Roger
There\’s a lot of information coming at. You were in an area really we\’ve never been in. I don\’t know anybody who\’s lived through a pandemic of this nature. I\’ve never been through a situation where we shut the economy down. I mean, the last time we did that was in 1918 in the Spanish flu epidemic. So there have been disruptions, but not on this level. And then every day we hear something, oh, there\’s gonna be a second wave.
Roger
Oh, we\’ve got a virus. A vaccine. Oh, this thing is a cure. This morning, there was an article that they found that steroids improve your results by about eight percent. And everybody\’s all excited. Like, that\’s a cure. It\’s just it\’s great for the eight percent that it\’ll help. But, you know, so start digging through this stuff. Then you go through a month like March, where the stock market drops a record amount.
Roger
And then we go through a month like May, where the stock market goes up a record amount. And you start wondering. Am I missing out? Is this thing going to go up forever? Should I be fully invested? Should I be scared of this? What do I do? And in that kind of confusion, frankly, build stress. You know, when people can\’t find that solid ground, we get very nervous. We like predictability. That\’s that\’s how we work as people.
Roger
Right. OK. And so when everything\’s uncertain, it\’s like it\’s like, you know, well, if you\’ve ever experienced an earthquake like we do sometimes here in California, the ground is going in every direction at once, seemingly. And you\’re thinking, what the heck is going on? So what what seemed solid isn\’t. And that\’s kind of where we\’re at right now. And you\’re seeing headlines in the newspaper and on websites and online. One article says, oh, it\’s going up, it\’s going up, you got to get here
Roger
You know, we\’ve had our correction. It went down. It came back. We\’ve got nothing to worry about. It\’s gonna go all the way to heaven. There was an article from Morgan Stanley that said, well, we might see another five to seven percent down and then look out. It\’s Katy. Bar the door. We\’re going up to dramatically by the certainly the end of this year, early next year.
Roger
That\’s a name I think everyone recognizes when you hear that. That\’s such a bold statement to say, why do you think they\’re out saying that? It helps with sales. Wall Street can\’t tell you that it\’s going down because then you wouldn\’t buy. And if you don\’t buy, they don\’t make money, comes back to the money.
Roger
You always have to look at what somebody is incentive when they tell you something. What is their incentive to say that? And do they have the proof of what they say? And the proof, frankly, is in the numbers. I hear so many opinions these days about, oh, yeah, large cap stocks are great. Oh, you should always be buy in real estate. And let\’s sit down and work the numbers and let the numbers tell us what strategies are going to work best for us instead of hunches and hope.
Roger
When I play baseball. Talk about hitting hope. Hit the ball. Hope it lands somewhere that you can get out. But it\’s my hope. Yeah. Yeah. And that that might be fine in certain sports. Remember, in baseball, you\’re considered great. If you succeed a third of the time, you\’re one of the best of all time with investing if only correct. A third of the time I\’m going broke. Right. So that\’s the confusion.
Roger
People can\’t make decisions. People are losing their attention spans. This. Social and economic situation being laid off. I mean, I cannot. I know how stressed I am and I\’m in a pretty good situation. I got a house. I got a backyard. I can go sit outside. I mean, there\’s people living in small, tiny studio apartments having trouble putting food on the table. The stress is just really, really it\’s it\’s permeating society right now.
Roger
And so that type of stress makes it very hard to make decisions and people get frozen. And so. One of the things you have to ask yourself is if I\’m frozen. What is the ramification of that? Because if I if I don\’t make a decision and I don\’t react to what\’s going on, that\’s still a decision or a decision no one wants to miss out.
Roger
Well, there\’s always a fear of missing out. But, you know, people I\’m second guessing myself, I don\’t make nobody wants to make a wrong decision. So I make no decision. And frequently, that\’s the worst decision you can make because you weren\’t considering making a change. Except that you feel you needed to because something\’s not going the way you want it to. Right. Otherwise you wouldn\’t even be thinking about it. But so when I back off course, gee, I don\’t know which one of these to decide about.
Roger
You\’ve made a decision. And that\’s that\’s all a hard concept a lot of times for people to grasp. So I as you and I have talked a bunch of times on Wall Street, the stock markets, the bond markets are some of the best marketing people anywhere.
Roger
Right. And you\’ve been taught we\’ve talked about this before. When you\’re young, you should take on more. What with your investments, Clark, risk more risk. Right. And when you invest in the stock market, should you be trading or is it time in the market or timing the market?
Roger
And I feel like. I mean, I think we\’ve seen the data, the time in the market over that period of time. That\’s the argument that people give you. It\’s don\’t try to outguess the market. Just put money in the market. It goes up over time. And that scary word always. So it does go up. It has it had a tendency for the last couple hundred years to go up over time. It doesn\’t happen everywhere. And there\’s no guarantee, as they say, past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Roger
But let\’s look at how much it\’s going up, because, boy, last year, you know, I talked to people about God, what a great year. I was up 20 percent. I was up 30 percent, man. I made so much money. Now, a lot of that money\’s been given back. So far this year. But regardless, people think that that stock market has really given them a tremendous return. So so let\’s just really examine that for a minute, because I want people to have a perspective before we go into these five reasons.
Roger
So if we go back 20 years with the S&P 500, which many people consider the best proxy, the most widely followed index, that gives us an idea of the market and how the market\’s doing, because the 500 stocks in the S&P 500 cover 80 percent of the market value of all traded stocks. You\’ve heard that before, haven\’t you?
Roger
Right.
Roger
So I went back and I looked at what the S&P 500 has done since January 1st, 2000. New century market was rallying. We had not seen the drop. The tech bubble, as it were. That didn\’t happen for a few months. So that first trading day of the new millennium, which happened to be January 3rd, 2000, the S&P 500 closed at thirteen ninety nine. And a couple of days ago, we closed at three thousand sixty six.
Roger
So we\’ve gone from thirteen ninety nine to three thousand sixty six. It\’s way more than doubled. That\’s pretty impressive, isn\’t it.
Clark
Yeah. Especially thinking that we\’re in this, you know, all of this uncertainty right now. It\’s still net positive. Sure.
Roger
Well, so that\’s net positive. But let\’s talk about what the growth really represents. So that seems impressive because you just look at the start and the finish number. But what did we have to earn? What does that work out to as a rate of return? Because, you know, how well did we really do? And that\’s a compounded growth rate of less than four percent. Less than four percent. So you would have gone through a lot of changes during that time, you would have seen your money drop by half or more, twice.
Roger
You would have had several other years where you made nothing. And then some years, like last year where you were, you were euphoric. But at the end of the day, you only made four percent compounded rate of return over 20 years.
Roger
So was all that stress and volatility worth it to make four percent? That\’s that\’s a question I want our listeners to ask themselves. And really, what prompted me to research this is I was seeing more and more people who\’ve been putting money into a retirement plan at work over 10, 15, 20 years. And I\’m looking at statements here over the last four or five months, actually last year, and I\’m seeing more and more people who the entire balance in their retirement account is based on how much money they contributed.
Roger
In other words, they\’re not earning anything on those investments. And that\’s what made me go back into. Why are all these people not making money? Well, because the market really hasn\’t done very much over a 20 year period. So, you know, you hear in all this noise, I got to be in the market, I got to do this, I got to do that. Oh, my God. Look at the market. Went up 10 percent in the month of May.
Roger
I wasn\’t there. No balls. It snowballs. And you start like like the noise just gets in your head and you start making emotional decisions. So what I want folks to be able to do is not to be overly influenced by by the headlines on the evening news or when they turn on CNBC or when they sit down for that Zoom happy hour with their friend or neighbor and their conversation turns to retirement savings. And, oh, I\’ve got this great mutual fund and all of that stuff.
Roger
Like when I ask people, well, why do you own the stock? I don\’t know. My uncle told me to buy it. You know what they do? No. So that that\’s the kind of noise we\’re talking about. And we all get it right. You know, everybody\’s got their opinion and most people are pretty happy to share it with you. So what I\’d like to do with you, if that\’s OK, is to really go through five steps that I think will help you to reduce the stress that we\’re all experiencing today.
Roger
OK.
Clark
It\’ll be great.
Roger
If we can reduce the stress in this very stressful time. We can live happier, more fulfilling, healthier lives. Stress is has been shown to be a negative for your overall health. And certainly, you know, my my focus is always on the end game. Why or what it was. What\’s this money for? And are we going to use it to retire? And how do we retire? Happy. We reduce the stress. Of course, this is one of the very first things we have to do.
Roger
So if we can start to create habits before retirement that reduce stress when we transition, it\’s going to be that much less stressful.
Roger
Does that make sense?
Clark
Makes sense. So starting off with your first tip, what is that? And let\’s dig into that more. OK.
Roger
Well, the first tip is know your why. Why the heck am I saving money if you don\’t know why it\’s not real. People who don\’t know why they would save money are the ones that don\’t save money, frankly. Now, they\’re always got some new toy.
Roger
They want to buy or another vacation and want to go on because there\’s no priority that will motivate them as much as enjoying the money today and what the money can give me. But once you know why you\’re investing in my investing to pay for my kid\’s future education, do I want to start a business? Am I looking to buy a house? And I\’m saving up for that downpayment? Is this for my retirement? 20, 30, 40 or even five years from now.
Roger
So when you can answer these questions and you can figure out what your time frame is. This is the first step. In helping you focus on the tools that will get you there. You know, if you\’re going out to build a shed. The first tool you would not go out and buy is a power sander. Right. Right.
Roger
You know, you\’re probably going to have want saws and drills and stuff like that sanding. It\’s going to come way later. So if you start out with sanding, you\’re not going to get much of a much of a shead out of that.
Clark
Yeah. The one of operations really matters.
Roger
Yes. The order and an understanding that there\’s a time line through all of this because it\’s not just getting the money in and investing it, but we have to get it out. Why are we investing? Well, whatever that objective is, we have to be able to get the money out. To achieve that objective and sometimes there\’s significant costs with getting the money out, sometimes they\’re taxes. Sometimes there\’s other costs.
Roger
So all of that has to be taken into consideration. But if you keep that focus, if you know exactly why am I doing this? And that\’s part of our process, frankly. And the thought organizer that we\’ll probably talk about a little bit later was just thinking that.
Clark
Yeah, because that that fits directly to the why I just mentioned that now. Well, we can maybe go back to again later.
Roger
Well, the Thought Organizer just simply a tool to help you shut out some of that noise to figure out what your priorities are, how you feel about money. I mean, our money personality is probably more important than what we invest in, what is our relationship with money and all that kind of stuff. So the thought organizer is a series of what I consider thought provoking questions and areas that will affect you or your future. And it\’s designed to help you think about these things so that you can get to that clarity and that why.
Clark
Right. Excellent. Let\’s go to our next tip to trying to block out some of this noise.
Roger
Well, number two, I would say, is listen to your gut. People come to me all the time like they\’re worried. Am I making a mistake? Nobody wants to make a mistake. Gee, I don\’t know much about this stuff. I don\’t know. Some guy told me I had to do this or I had to do that, and it just didn\’t feel comfortable. And then I hear the stories. Wow. I know I went to my broker in 2007 and I told him, this all makes me nervous.
Roger
Sell me out. And then they said, oh, no, you\’re in it for the long haul. The market\’s going to keep going up. This is just temporary. Don\’t worry about it. And then they lament that their balances went down by half or stuff like that. A couple of weeks ago, I was speaking with somebody who was referred to me and she\’s like, you know, I. I don\’t understand money. I don\’t really think about it very much.
Roger
It makes me a little nervous. And so back in January, I was so nervous. I just sold everything in my retirement account and put it in the money market. And she said to me, I probably made a big mistake. And I told her that she\’d made a better call than most of the Wall Street pros. And, you know, just because you\’re not a professional doesn\’t mean you can\’t make a great decision. There are lots of professionals who make crappy decisions.
Roger
One of the dirty little secrets is a lot of professionals are just as emotional as you are. They just happen to be in a position to to make these decisions and make it seem like they know something special. Now, there there are people who know special things. I\’d like to think that I know some special things about tax laws and finance and how money works. And that\’s where I add value to a client. But when when something doesn\’t feel right, I find that your best adviser is that God.
Roger
And if you ignore it, a lot of times it just doesn\’t work out. I can give you frankly, I can give you examples of things that I didn\’t listen to my gut and take profits when something just seemed too good to be true and stuff like that. And it\’s really true. Just listen to yourself. You have a brain that works. And, you know, you talked about it earlier. It\’s this fear of missing out. You know, I do.
Roger
When I first trained on Wall Street thirty five years ago, it was there\’s two two reasons people invest. It\’s fear and greed. And you have to figure out which one motivates them.
Roger
And fear combined with greed. That is that fear of missing out. I\’m afraid that a lot of people that have piled back into the stock market here in the last month or two during pandemic, it could end very badly for them.
Roger
Yeah, I mean, well, you know, OK, so the market came back. You made some money. What\’s the plan? Do you sell now? Do you keep writing it? What\’s the plan? What are you going to do? And that\’s again, knowing your why and listening to your gut. So there\’s lots of I talked to somebody who\’s whose son said back in March, gee, I want to buy this stock. Just this one stock.
Roger
I think it\’s going to rebound nicely. And they were smart enough after two weeks to to sell enough to get their risk money out and just let their profits stay in the market. And again, these are the the disciplines, the logical things that we can create and the strategies that we can follow when you know your why. And you listen to yourself. Which brings me to number three. And there\’s a there\’s a great old saying called paralysis by analysis.
Roger
And I cannot tell you how many people I\’ve talked to over the years who. OK. I am just you know, I\’ve sort of gone along on my uncle gave me some recommendations and I did them or a friend at work or my neighbor or Uncle Joe. And, you know, now I I\’m going to become a pro. I\’m going to read books. I\’m going to study. I\’m going gonna go online. I\’m going to do calculations on subscribe to services.
Clark
I\’m going to become just consume everything.
Roger
I\’m going to consume everything. And you start analyzing things. And it\’s just like, you know, at the beginning here, this is part of the noise. The market\’s going to go up. The market\’s going to go down. Bonds are great. Bonds are lousy. I got an email from a client today. She said, oh, here\’s here\’s an article I just read. Should I be doing this? It was about Treasury inflation protected securities tips.
Roger
These are just Treasury Bonds that are tied to the rate of inflation. And in the right situation, they\’re good. But she\’s right. I read this article. Should I be doing this? You know, the world is very complicated today. It is not like it was a couple of thousand years ago. I make horseshoes. You make corn. You got a horse that drags your harvester around and they need a horseshoe. I need corn because I want to eat.
Roger
I\’m a trade show, horse shoes for corn and move on. Today, things are so much more complex. That is absolutely impossible to become an expert in everything. So you\’ve got to build your team. You got to be able to have. People to work with it, you trust. And whether it\’s somebody like me or somebody else that you can process through these things and not overanalyze them, at some point you have to make a decision. And every decision has a small leap of faith.
Roger
I know people, you know, over research and they don\’t want to make a mistake so that you end up frozen. And like we said earlier, that\’s still a decision. And you have to know, is that decision to do nothing going to serve my wife?
Clark
You\’re right. I know you don\’t like being self promotion. I feel like this is a good point to think about working with someone like you who can.
Clark
Help someone looking and walking beside somebody who\’s been there and you\’ve seen you\’ve had a lot of experience, you\’ve seen a lot of other clients of yours be in similar situations. This is why I think it really pays off to have someone in your corner that can help just speak truth, speak clarity into someone\’s.
Roger
And that\’s someone who might be frozen from overanalysis. Well, I agree with you, I you know, when everything\’s flying, it really doesn\’t matter. You know, you don\’t need somebody like me when the stock market\’s rallying like crazy. I think back to when I was a broker and I remember there were these young guys that when I called the whippersnappers and they would walk or strut around in their three-piece custom suits and they\’d strut around the office bragging about how much money they were making for people.
Roger
And I used to say, you you\’re not making any money for people. It\’s the market that\’s making money. You just happen to be along for the ride. And then on October 19th, 1987, when we had a 25 percent drop in the market, that Monday, they call it Black Monday. And watching these guys walk around like shell shocked, like they\’ve just been through a war and they said, what are what\’s going on? What do I do?
Roger
Oh, my goodness. So it\’s easy to get that cockiness. But having in in in back in those days in the 80s excuse me, was a time they used to publish these things. They\’d have monkeys throwing darts at the stock paper and and the monkeys portfolios almost always beat the professionals portfolios because everything was going up. It really didn\’t matter. But today, when things are tough and we\’re seeing strange market action and the dots aren\’t connecting and things are moving very fast, that\’s where somebody like me can really add value for sure.
Roger
That\’s also one of the things that I promised my clients. If I\’m not adding value, don\’t work with me. And there\’s only one way to find that out is that\’s to work for a while. But I do understand I\’m not the right guy for everybody. My personality doesn\’t fit everybody. It is important to be comfortable with that relationship.
Clark
Excellent. Good. I\’m glad you mentioned that. So that brings us to step four of the five or almost done. But what we have at number four.
Roger
Number four is look forward every time you hear an advertisement on the radio or see it in the newspaper or on television for an investment product. They always say this really fast at the end and past performance is no guarantee of future results. All right. I think probably right now this is truer than it\’s been at any time in my career.
Roger
There are so many things going on in the economy. We talked a little bit about corona virus and how this is developing and the pandemic. And we don\’t know. I\’m pretty sure we\’re gonna see some great American companies going bankrupt. I mean, Hertz is in bankruptcy right now and there\’s speculation going on in their stock. Like I\’ve never seen before. And the company is not going to survive yet. They\’re issuing new stock and people are actually buying it, even though the company has a negative net worth.
Roger
And they\’re they\’re desperately trying to sell off cars. That\’s just one example. They\’re going to be a lot of companies who just aren\’t going to come back. They\’re just not. And a lot of jobs. If you analyze the last unemployment report, there are jobs that are just plain not going to come back. You know, work is reorganizing itself. More and more people are working from all these. All these things have ramifications. And it\’s why what worked in the past isn\’t necessarily going to work in the future.
Roger
And so I would say probably the biggest example that I\’m saying is. How can we possibly justify this? The stock valuations that we have right now, we have never seen stocks this expensive under many of the traditional metrics of stock valuations. How much is the. The total value of all shares worth compared to the total value of our gross domestic product. We\’re like one hundred and fifty percent of our gross domestic product right now. We haven\’t really seen that high level since the late 90s and or the late 20s.
Roger
So there is precedent to see this. And again, it doesn\’t usually end well. So we\’ve seen a lot of volatility. I would I would put it to you that the what\’s what\’s caused the stock market to go up for the last 12 years is all this cheap money. All that debt that\’s been created here in the last 12 years, we\’ve more than doubled the national debt. And now a lot of that money found its way into the stock market, pushing up valuations.
Roger
This is like putting gas in the car. OK, well, you keep put gas in the car. Gas in the car and in the car can keep going. But someday the car is going to break down because you needed to stop and change the oil or maintain the vehicle. And we\’re just not doing that. It\’s almost like, you know, they just keep pumping more money out of the Fed and into the stock market eventually. That\’s just not going to work anymore.
Roger
So I think returns from the stock market, most of the people I respect and we\’ve talked about this before are looking for returns somewhere in the four to six percent range over the next decade. And it\’s not going to happen in a straight line. We\’re going to have some significant down years and maybe some significant up years. So there are tools that will work in this kind of environment. Money still flows. People with wealth and in fact, money flows faster today than it ever has before.
Roger
Tens of billions of dollars can move from point A to point B in a nanosecond. Right. And so it\’s really taking a multi-asset balanced approach. And we\’ve got a number of strategies that help you do that so that you can cover things like real estate and commodities and bonds and stocks and international and this. And be able to be nimble to move back and forth between these different asset classes, depending on what the conditions are and how money is flowing.
Roger
I really think that that\’s something that people to succeed going forward are really going to have to take a serious look at incorporating some of those strategies. I don\’t think just buying an S&P 500 index fund and forgetting about it is going to get most people to where they want to go.
Clark
Right. And all that is what you\’re describing is having that plan, having a plan. That\’s that\’s the fifth and final step.
Roger
If you go through those other four, that\’s the foundation to creating a plan. And when that when you do put that plan together, I recommend you at least write it out in terms of an outline. You know, A, B, C. These are primaries. These are my concerns. This is the path and how we\’re going to get there from point A to point B, and we\’re going to review that plan periodically and make sure it\’s still working for me.
Roger
Has my why changed? Has the world changed? Do I have to make adjustments too often when people put that plan in place? They just close their eyes and say, forget about it. And then something changes. And they haven\’t looked at it for, you know, 10 years. And they come back and find out that they missed a tremendous amount of opportunities or unfortunately got caught up in someplace they didn\’t want to be. So having that plan, having that reference point, if you will, that blueprint so you can say, am I making the progress to those things that I want that I feel are important?
Clark
Well, Roger, thank you, as always, for bringing your perspective and sharing your wisdom on all of this. It is really helpful, especially in the times that we\’re in right now.
Clark
So with that said, what\’s the next step for someone to make that plan with you and the team? OK. Well, I do want people to remember that this has to be important to you. It\’s your money. It shouldn\’t be. It\’s not going to be more important to anybody else than it is you. And if you\’re looking for a partner, if you\’re looking for somebody that will help you analyze through the noise and refine what you\’re doing. That\’s what we do.
Roger
That\’s that\’s how we help people. If you\’re not quite ready but you say, you know, this is something I really want to get to stop by our website, www.gainerfinancial.com or call the office at four one five three three one nine zero three zero. And sign up for our newsletter. We put content like this out while we\’re doing it more frequently because these days, because frankly, there\’s just a lot more going on.
Roger
And what I\’m trying to do is help people cut through all that noise and be able to see the things that that I\’m seeing and that seem to be having a great amount of influence, not just on today, but how we\’re going to progress going forward. So if you think having that kind of resource will be helpful to your decision making or having the assistance of a professional like me, contact us through the Web site or call the office. And we\’re very happy to help you out.
Roger
In fact, anybody that\’s listening to this, when you do make that inquiry, if you mention this podcast, the five steps to relieving stress and blocking out the noise, we will provide you with a forty five minute no cost consultation where we can answer some questions and you can figure out if it\’s worth working with somebody like me.
Clark
Excellent. Looking forward to our next conversation, Roger.
Roger
All right. Clark, always a pleasure. Keep smiling.
Roger L. Gainer, RICP, ChFC, California insurance license number 0754849, is licensed to sell insurance and annuity products in California, Illinois, Arizona, and Nevada. Roger L. Gainer is an investment advisor representative, providing advisory services through HFIS, Inc., a registered investment advisor. Gainer Financial and Insurance Services, Inc. is not owned by or affiliated with HFS, Inc. and operates independently.
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